Monday, November 19, 2012

If you can't find a cause to give to in New Orleans, open up map, see "French Quarter".


Abstract: It is accepted that charitable donations are partially crowded out by government grants. That is, people view grants as imperfect substitutes for their own giving. At least, that’s the “demand side” of the story.  I take a look at Andreoni and Payne (2003)[1] and discuss their findings for the “supply side”, i.e. nonprofits. They suggest the strategic response of non-profit firms is to reduce fund-raising efforts after receiving a grant. This has important implications for the time-old “big government giving/small government, private donations” debate and says, essentially, you’re both right/wrong! (I’m drinking coffee, and currently my glass is half full…everyone’s right)

I have just returned from the Southern Economics Association’s annual conference, this year in New Orleans, and am bursting at the seams with interesting stories (about a 50/50 split between Bourbon Street and the Conference).

New Orleans is in itself an economic phenomenon; a cesspool of behavioral anomalies, a sandbox for the study of market competition and consumer/firm interaction, and yes, a kiddie-pool-full-of-ky-jelly of altruism and charitable giving.   For example, my friend managed to donate a dollar to a man raising money for a deaf persons’ music club (there may actually be these clubs and I am very happy for the deaf community if they enjoy such opportunities). The interesting part of this transaction is not the irony of the organization, but that he gave to a “cause” simply because he was asked and would have never sought out a deaf persons’ music group to donate to it. I gave a dollar to a man who told me to eat pine needles to gain more testosterone… but I’m a connoisseur of sorts. The other interesting point is that since I saw my friend donate, I didn't feel the need to. His giving “crowded out” my giving.

My reduced giving as result of my friends giving parallels what goes on with government grants.[2] The demand side response to an organization that receives “my tax dollars”, or in many cases any other source of money, is to reduce my giving to them. However, you can easily imagine that if the man had received a grant to fund his organization he would likely not be on the street on a Saturday night asking for $1.50 donations from a stumbling, scruffy bearded hippy and a v-neck sweater touting mamma’s boy (both economists). So, our private giving would be reduced, not because we saw the grant as a substitute, but because he never asked us!

Androni and Payne (2003) explore the nonprofit response empirically. They find that for arts organizations (like a music group or museum) an additional $1000 in government grants would reduce fundraising expenditures by $265 dollars. Additionally, the same size grant would only reduce social service organizations fundraising expenditures by $54 (and negative responses for others). They conclude that grants do decrease fundraising expenditures, which in turn decrease private giving. Not surprisingly, effect is larger for organizations who receive many of their current revenues from private donations already and smaller for those who have to fight harder for private funds.

So, maybe the argument for non-profit government grants should not be over whether or not to give them, but which organizations to give them to.

Lastly, there is a reason why a “hand grenade” is a weapon and not a drink…


[1] Andreoni, James and A. Abigail Payne. “Do Government Grants to Private Charities Crowd out Giving or Fund-Raising?” American Economic Review, June 2003, 93(3), pp. 792-812.
[2] The crowding out is incomplete. By incomplete, I mean that the reduction in giving does not equal the amount in grants, so there is net gain... good news.

Thursday, November 1, 2012

An Economic Case for the Running of the 2012 NYC Marathon: Refilling Bloomberg's Washed Out Coffers



This entry is for my girlfriend, Kimberly Huber (she has a blog, and a bucket list, and food recipes… it’s awesome, see it here). She will run her first marathon on Saturday in Indianapolis, Indiana at the Monumental Marathon. In the spirit of her excruciating training I will punish her further by forcing her to read an econ blog about marathons. Good luck, Kim (with both)!

Don't forget to click on the links for a more, um, indulgent experience...

Abstract: Part 1: The guy who ran the first marathon surely hated it too… but he died at the end.
Part 2: Bring on the skinny tourists! Marathons’ benefit to society doesn't stop at the finish line, it continues through the checkout line. Hosting mainstream competitions, such as a marathon, can provide a city with a decent short term economic stimulus.[1]Today, Mayor Michael Bloomberg (New York City) announced that the infamous ING NYCMarathon will commence on time this Sunday, bringing nearly 50,000 runners and their families into a storm-stricken downtown. Good idea or bad? 

Part 1: The Legend of a Legend: Pheidippides
In case you didn't know, the marathon commemorates a death march of a young boy named Pheidippides (Dippy from here on out)… so think about that when you’re complaining about your numb foot at mile 20![2] Dippy was a Greek messenger who, according to my favorite version of the legend, ran a total of 300 plus miles before collapsing to death. The Persians were at war with the Greeks in and around Athens, so Dippy ran 150 miles from Athensto Sparta to ask for help, then ran back another 150 miles to fight in the Battle of Marathon. He survived it, because, you know, ya’ can’t kill a man who just ran 150 miles very easily, and was immediately sent to Athens to tell of the good news. After the 26 mile jaunt, he burst into an assembly, yelled “We win!” and died.  The official distance of 26.2 miles began in 1921 to commemorate the 1908 marathon which was extended .2 miles to finish in front of the Royal Box in London[3].

Part 2: Marathons, not your average tourist attractions
Many states have tourism taxes designed at capturing a little extra revenue from those bedless, kitchenless, transportationless visitors who frequent their municipalities from the great unknown (see what this means for Texans here). For example, Hawaii, a state that thrives on tourism, established the Tourism Special Fund in 1998 which collects taxes from hotels, vacation rentals, and other transient accommodations. They use the fund to generate additional tourism through hosting mainstream events. In 2007 the Fund was roughly $70 million, 10% of which went to the marketing of sporting events like surfing championships, PGA golfing tournaments, the Ironman Triathlon World Championships, and the NFL Pro Bowl. If you’re reading this as an economist, you’re thinking cost/benefit analysis. Baumann, Matheson, and Muroi (2009, Journal of Sports Economics) study the return to Hawaii sports marketing by looking at the changes in arriving flights surrounding several large sporting events. They find that only 3 events cause a significant increase in tourism in Hawaii: the NFL Pro Bowl, the Ironman Triathlon, and the Honolulu marathon. Additionally, at an upper bound, the Honolulu Marathon generated the same amount of tourism as the Pro Bowl. Hawaii spends roughly two-thirds of its entire sports budget on the rights to the Pro Bowl, but provides no funds to the marathon.

What does this have to do with New York City? It is no mystery that the city has been on halt while Hurricane Sandy passed and that, with 32 deaths, morality and ethics enter the equation. But, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has said the race is a “go” based largely on local economic concerns, so let’s take a very “economically positive” look at this. The New York Marathon will attract nearly 50,000 runners and their families and friends. These runners had to qualify (or be randomly drawn) for this race and have known for a while that they were running, therefore it is highly likely that their hotel rooms are booked and bags are packed. New York City collects a 5.8% tax on hotels plus $2 per day so, assuming one hotel room per runner at an average cost of $250 for one night (conservative), that’s $825,000 in tax revenue from hotel accommodations alone. Although NYC charges no sales tax for shoes and clothing under $110, everything else has a 4.5% city sales tax with additional surcharge rates sprinkled in.[4] Linking this to the Hawaii case study, the Honolulu Marathon attracts only about 40% of the runners but still boasts a net increase in economic activity of $5.1 million (Honolulu Marathon, 2008). That is, after accounting for local economic displacement as a result of race congestion, closed roads, etc., consumer spending increases by $5.1 million. Similarly, NYC is extending little monetary cost to put on the marathon since most of it will be paid for by entry fees (about $250) and sponsorships (it’s televised on ESPN2), while forgoing nothing in the form of lost local economic activity. Storm congestion and road closures are already inhibiting regular economic activity. So, disregarding moral sentiment, giving the “green light” to the race is a no brainer. With regards to how it “should be”, I’ll act like a good economist and stay out of that debate…

Justin Roush
University of Tennessee Economics



[1] Baumann, Robert W., Victor A. Matheson and Chihiro Muroi. (2009). Bowling in Hawaii: Examining the Effectiveness of Sports-Based Tourism Strategies. Journal of Sports Economics.10(1).107-123.  
[2] It’s more of a tale…
[3] Shamelessly, Wikipedia.org.
[4] www.nyc.gov.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

In defense of experimental economics or “Why the hard sciences should trust social science’s adoption of the petri dish”


Abstract: Many people have suspicions about laboratory investigation of human behavior in economics. Most of the time, those suspicions are unfounded and misguided. I discuss the basics of an economic experiment, some of the issues, and how we handle them.[1]

A little about experimental econ:
It is strange to think about experimenting on human subjects. Sounds weird… like, do experimental economists just roll up in a large white cargo van with “free candy” painted on the door, lure subjects inside, poke them and see how they squirm? In so many words, yes! Then we write long, boring papers about it that other pure economists and scientists put with their stash of parking/losing lottery tickets for “toilet use” (sort of kidding). In fact, economists have been bringing people into labs (not vans) since around the late 1940’s, but only in the last decade has it become popular.[2]

First, what is an experiment… skip if you think you know, but feel inclined to click on the hyperlinks:
In the hard sciences, you poke a beast and observe how it squirms. It’s important to control for the characteristics of the beast so that you can compare it with other beasts with those same characteristics that were not poked (see The ScientificMethod). For example, if I wanted to see how a banana ripens when placed in a container of a certain gas (ethylene), I’d want to have a banana to compare it to. So, I’d place a banana in a container with “normal” air and make sure it was as close to the exact same container and banana as possible (size, “greenness”, etc). I then observe the relative differences in ripening for the two bananas. Since everything between the two experiments is EXACTLY the same except the gas, I can confidently attribute any differences in ripening to the presence of the gas.(Note: example inspired by the banana I'm eating...)  

So, what’s the problem with the lab?
In economics, the process is exactly the same except the “beast” can get curious and mess up the results. The problem is that humans are not used to being caged and probed and will respond in weird ways! We poke them, and then they think questions like, “Why is it poking me?”, “How am I supposed to squirm?”, “If I squirm, what will the other beasts in the room think of me?”, “Okay, A-hole, poke me again…”, etc. They just don’t act naturally when the environment changes, which is why many people rule out economics in the laboratory.

Example: DictatorGame. In economics we like to study altruism or “other regarding preferences”. The dictator game is simple: I give you $10, you decide how much to split between you and another person, done. The other person just sits there and receives what you give them. We find that only about 18% of people take the whole $10. There’s hope for the world! This simple game helps us understand humanity’s basic regard for other people. HOW ON EARTH CAN HUMANS SCREW THIS UP!?!?
Several ways, illustrated by YOU! Yes, YOU, the person who’s actually gotten this far into my blog. Don’t turn back now, it’s not a sunk cost, don’t ignore it, you must continue….

Some example problems (there are more)[3]:
1)      Scrutiny- Since your decisions are being monitored, you don’t split it truthfully. For some silly reason you think that I, the experimenter, care that you screw the other person over and give them nothing (I don’t). But, since you think I care, you give more than you normally would… so, YOU SCREW UP MY RESULTS!
Solution: I don’t interact with you. You go to a cubicle, put the money in an envelope, I don’t touch the envelope, I don’t distribute the money, someone else does. No pressure.[4]
2)      Framing and context- I tell you that you’re a trader on Wall Street that has been given stocks to split between you and a partner. You go, “Hmm… Wall Street. People are cut-throat on Wall Street. I have permission to be a jerk!” and you leave with $10 dollars instead of giving what you normally would…. So, YOU SCREW UP MY RESULTS!
Solution: Use neutral language. Provide no contextual framework whatsoever. Don’t call the person you’re trading with “friend” or “partner”, call them subject Z. Don’t tell them that they are “splitting” the money, tell them they get to allocate the funds to themselves and the other person.
3)      Selection- If you in fact ARE a trader on Wall Street and I get a group of you and all of your fellow traders to do the experiment. You all take most of the money for yourself because you are cut-throat by nature. This result will not be representative of altruism for the rest of the human race… so, you have SCREWED UP MY RESULTS!
Solution: Have a random sample of individuals.
4)      Artificial restrictions on choice sets- I give you $12 dollars, you tithe exactly 10% of all money you get, so you’re going to count this as your tithe this week. You want to give $1.20 to your partner but you can’t because I've only given you dollar bills, so you give $1.00. If there are many of you, I will underestimate altruism. YOU and I HAVE SCREWED UP MY RESULTS!
Solution: As well as I possibly can, allow for a full range of choice within the lab.

The important theme in ALL of these is that they are real issues in the laboratory, but hardly any of them go unaddressed. Experimental economics has evolved (and continues to evolve) to be aware of the pitfalls that exist by bringing humans into a lab. The issues are NOT stylized facts of the laboratory, but rather frequent issues that we must address before running an experiment (not unlike any other form of research). In a way, our job is easier than the hard sciences because getting two “similar” beasts can be as simple as having individuals fill out a survey and comparing the "like" ones, but the other sciences can’t ask a banana for demographic information and their potassium content. On the other hand, our life is more difficult for all of the reasons described above, but we can account for them. So, rest assured, experimental economists are practicing science! Just as pure, unfiltered, and “petri dish-like” as we can get it!



[1] This entry was inspired by a lecture on experimental demand effects from Justin Rao, PhD. (Microsoft).
[2] Falk, Armin, and James Heckman, “Lab Experiments Are a Major Source of Knowledge in the Social Sciences” Science, 2009.326, pg. 539.
[3] For more, see Levitt and List (2007), “What do Laboratory Experiments Measuring Social Preferences Reveal about the Real World?”.
[4] Hoffman, David, Kevin McCabe and Vernon L. Smith. “Social Distance and Other-regarding Behavior in Dictator Games” The American Economic Review, 1996. 86(3). Pp.653-660.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Just so you know what you're getting into...

There must be a billion blogs out there. Why read mine? I might just be another over-caffeinated office numpty flicking donut crumbs across my keyboard as I peck away some rambling narrative of my last two weeks and how they sucked/ruled/existed/etc. Or, I might be a semi-cynical yet thoughtful young economist who dabbles in current events and provides you with a fresh burst of (undertrained yet ambitious) insight on topics you may or may not care about (my money's on the latter). But, how are you to know!?!?

Consider this my official disclaimer. Below you will find my blog syllabus. Its purpose is twofold: 1) A sort of implicit contract between you (the helpless reader) and me (the hopeless blogger) or 2) A roadmap with instruction on how to navigate my ramblings.

1) I will be writing about triathlons and economics. Why? There is one thing in common with awesome economists and good triathletes: strapping good looks. Most of them also have a blog. If you don't like tri's and econ, go here instead (click it). If you like one and not the other, it will be abundantly clear in the title of the post what I'm talking about, so waste your time accordingly.

If you like economics and not triathlons, go here.

If you like triathlons and not economics, go here.

...sorry about the hour you just spent watching screaming/feinting goats (if you don't know what I'm talking about, you like both triathlons and economics, so we're good).

2) Each post will have an abstract! I am an economist and appreciate the value of being able to verify the quality of something before I purchase it... it makes for good contracts. It's like a Carfax report, only so much less consequential because at the end you don't have a Pink 1987 Geo Tracker without a transmission, you've just wasted a little time (ergo, died a little bit).

Assumption: Died a little bit <   Pink 1987 Geo Tracker without a transmission

(Dunno... it's your utility function)

3) There is no three, but there always has to be a three, because who makes a list of two? Earnhardt!

I'll likely only be blogging twice a month, but who knows. I might get bored and type several, or I might get bored and type none. We'll see how much coffee I drink... (insight has just been provided for question posed in last sentence of first paragraph). That's all for now.

J. Roush
University of Tennessee Economics